Lockdown vs re-opening the economy in Georgia
[Note: This blog was originally published in partnership with OC Media on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC Georgia and OC Media.]
As the number of new daily confirmed cases is again on the rise, we look at how people felt about the anti-coronavirus restrictions in May.
Aside from the public health situation, COVID-19 has led to rising unemployment, reduced incomes, and food insecurity in Georgia. As the number of new daily confirmed cases is again on the rise, the Caucasus Datablog takes a look at how people felt about the anti-coronavirus restrictions when they were at their height.
Despite polling from CRRC Georgia’s COVID-19 Monitor surveys showing that the public supported the vast majority of the government’s anti-coronavirus policies, the data also suggests people were eager for the economy to reopen. In fact, a majority said they favoured opening up over a more cautious approach.
CRRC asked the public about the relative importance of caution versus opening up the economy on two surveys conducted between 7–10 May and 14–17 May. Most people agreed with the idea that the economic impacts of COVID-19 were worse than the virus itself and disagreed that it was more important to wait for the virus to be under control than to open the economy.
In addition, the share of Georgians thinking that economic consequences of the virus could be as severe as virus itself also rose from 51% during the 7–10 May period to 64% during the 14–17 May.
The data from the 14–17 May survey was further analysed to explore differences between socio-demographic groups like age, gender, settlement type, education, employment, ethnicity, and household wealth.
This logistic regression showed that people in Tbilisi were less likely to think it was important to wait for COVID-19 to subside before opening up the economy. Older people were also less likely to support waiting for the epidemiological situation to get under control.
When it comes to the economic costs of COVID-19, there were no statistical differences between key socio-demographic variables. During the crisis, large shares were uncertain how long the COVID-19 crisis would last (35% in the 7–10 May period and 42% during the 14–17 May period).
Uncertainty on this question was associated with the idea that the economic costs of the virus could be worse than the virus itself. Controlling for demographic variables from the previous model, those uncertain about the possible period of the crisis were less supportive of the idea that the economic costs of the virus were worse than the virus itself.
Still, a majority of those who were certain or uncertain about the length of the crisis thought that the economic consequences were worse than COVID-19’s health implications.
Overall, the majority of Georgians were supportive of opening up the economy during the COVID-19 crisis, and this support was increasing during the period when the economy was effectively closed.
The negative economic impacts of COVID-19 also gained more public attention during this time.
In general, urban settlements were more supportive of re-starting normal economic activities. Older people were also more prone to agree with opening up.
Besides socio-demographic variables, uncertainties associated with the COVID-19 timeline also shaped public opinions. Uncertain people generally tended to disagree with the idea that the economic costs were harsher than the virus itself.
The data presented in this blog post is available here. Replication code for the above analysis is available here.
This article was written by Rati Shubladze. Rati is a policy analyst at CRRC Georgia. The views presented in this article represent the author’s alone and do not represent the views of CRRC Georgia, the Embassy of the Netherlands in Georgia, or any related entity.
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უცნაურია, თუმცა, პანდემიის დროს უფრო მეტი ადამიანი გრძნობს თავს ჯანმრთელად
კორონა ვირუსის პანდემიამ აშკარად დააზიანა ხალხის ჯანმრთელობა.თუმცა, კავკასიის ბარომეტრის კვლევის ახალი მონაცემების მიხედვით, 2020 წელს ადამიანები საკუთარ ჯანმრთელობას უფრო კარგად აფასებენ, ვიდრე წინა წლების გამოკითხვებში.
2019 წელს მოსახლეობის მხოლოდ 35% აფასებდა თავის ჯანმრთელობას კარგად. გასულ წლებში, ეს მაჩვენებელი იცვლებოდა, თუმცა, ყველაზე დიდი ცვლილება 2013-2014 წლებში მოხდა, როდესაც ეს მაჩვენებელი 41%-დან 30%-მდე შემცირდა. ამის საპირისპიროდ, 2019 და 2020 წლების გამოკითხვებს თუ შევადარებთ, ადამიანების წილი, ვინც საკუთარ ჯანმრთელობას კარგად აფასებს, თითქმის გაორმაგდა - 35%-დან 65%-მდე გაიზარდა.
ვინ ფიქრობს, რომ საქართველო წარმატებით გაუმკლავდა კორონავირუსის პანდემიას?
თითქმის ერთი წელი გავიდა, რაც ჯანდაცვის მსოფლიო ორგანიზაციამ ახალი კორონავირუსი გლობალურ პანდემიად გამოაცხადა.
მას შემდეგ, საქართველოში ვირუსით ინფიცირების 260,000-ზე მეტი შემთხვევა დაფიქსირდა, საიდანაც 3,300-ზე მეტი ფატალურად დასრულდა. მნიშვნელოვნად იზარალა საქართველოს ეკონომიკამაც, რომელიც 2020 წელს 1994 წლის შემდეგ ყველაზე მეტად შემცირდა.
შესაბამისად, საინტერესოა, რამდენად წარმატებულად აფასებს მოსახლეობა საქართველოს მიერ პანდემიასთან გამკლავებას?
UNM supporters are especially pessimistic about their economic future
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COVID-19 restrictions have impacted people’s economic activity heavily. This is reflected in key economic indicators such as GDP, which declined by 5.9% year on year between January and November 2020.
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What predicts job satisfaction in Georgia?
Unemployment remains one of the most frequently cited concerns among Georgians. But how satisfied with their jobs are those who are employed?
Public opinion polling consistently shows that the most important issue facing the country is unemployment. While official data suggests an unemployment rate of around 17%, Caucasus barometer survey data suggests that only 40% consider themselves employed.
While unemployment is clearly an issue, a secondary point is the quality of jobs available: a third of the unemployed (36%) reported that they do not work because available jobs do not pay enough, and 61% reported that suitable work is hard to find on a 2018 survey.
საქართველო აცრებისადმი ნდობის მხრივ მსოფლიოში ერთ-ერთ ბოლო ადგილზეა
მეცნიერები თანხმდებიან, რომ კორონავირუსის საწინააღმდეგო მასობრივი იმუნიზაცია ვირუსის კონტროლის ერთადერთი ეფექტური ხერხია. ამასთან, მოსახლეობის ვაქცინებისადმი უნდობლობამ, რასაც ჯანდაცვის მსოფლიო ორგანიზაციამ „უპრეცედენტო გამოწვევა“ უწოდა, მასობრივი აცრების მცდელობებს შესაძლოა, ძირი გამოუთხაროს.
საქართველოს შესახებ უახლესი მონაცემების თანახმად, ქვეყნის მოსახლეობა მსოფლიოს სხვა ქვეყნებთან შედარებით, ნაკლებადაა დაინტერესებული კორონავირუსის საწინააღმდეგო აცრით.
Drug prices as big a concern as COVID-19 for Georgians
While Georgia’s healthcare system has faced significant challenges as a result of the pandemic, just under half of Georgians consider an issue related to COVID-19 to be among the main challenges facing the country’s healthcare system with medicine prices remaining a big worry, polling suggests.
In the December 2020 NDI and CRRC-Georgia survey, respondents were asked what the largest issue facing the healthcare system was. They were allowed to name up to three issues. The most commonly named issues were the cost of medicine (46%), access to hospitals due to COVID-19 issues (16%), and other COVID-19 related issues (25%).
The evolution of feelings towards the pandemic
It’s been over a year since the first coronavirus case was recorded in Georgia, and attitudes towards the pandemic have continued to change.
CRRC Georgia’s Omnibus survey has tracked attitudes towards the COVID-19 pandemic since April 2020. Data from the most recent wave of the survey, in January, suggest that Georgians increasingly believe that the worst is already behind us.
In April 2020, Georgia had low COVID-19 case counts. Given this as well as the difficult situations in other countries, it is perhaps unsurprising that 45% of the public believed that the worst of the virus was yet to come. At the same time, 26% thought that the virus would not be a major problem, and 14% thought that the worst had already passed.
რატომ არ უნდათ ქართველებს აცრა?
იმის გათვალისწინებით, რომ საქართველოში კორონავირუსის საწინააღმდეგო უკვე ორი სახის ვაქცინის გაკეთებაა შესაძლებელი, საზოგადოების დამოკიდებულება ვაქცინაციის მიმართ უფრო და უფრო მნიშვნელოვანი ხდება. რატომ არიან ქართველები ასე სკეპტიკურად განწყობილი კორონავირუსის საწინააღმდეგო ვაქცინაციის მიმართ?
კორონავირუსის წინააღმდეგ აცრის მიმართ მზაობა 2020 წლის ივნისსა და დეკემბერშიც არ იყო მაღალი, თუმცა, სავარაუდოდ, ეჭვები ვაქცინაციასთან დაკავშირებით უფრო გაიზრდებოდა მას შემდეგ, რაც 18 მარტს კორონავირუსის წინააღმდეგ ასტრაზენეკას ვაქცინით აცრის შემდეგ მცირე ხანში ახალგაზრდა ქალი გარდაიცვალა.
CRRC/NDI-ის 2021 წლის თებერვლის გამოკითხვა აჩვენებს, რომ ამ შემთხვევამდეც კი, თებერვალში, ქართველების მხოლოდ მესამედი გამოხატავდა კორონავირუსის წინააღმდეგ აცრის მიმართ მზაობას და თავშეკავების მთავარ მიზეზად ვაქცინის ხარისხს ასახელებდა.
People in Georgia are highly uncertain about their economic future
Across various demographic groups, Georgians are uncertain about what their economic futures might hold, with those from lower-income backgrounds more uncertain than those with a higher income.What makes people feel insecure in Georgia?
A CRRC analysis found that Georgians who feel insecure in Georgia mostly attribute this to economic insecurity, but also express concern about a wider array of harder security issues.Georgia has faced numerous crises in recent years; from the pandemic, to the results of the war in Ukraine, via political controversy and uncertainty.