Georgian Election | ODIHR Preliminary Report and its Percentages
A bigger challenge comes from better targeting of observers: since this is a repeat election within a relatively short time frame, ODIHR can target so-called problem districts and precincts much more accurately. More observers in these problem districts means more problems found. It is perfectly possible that a relatively stable number actually hides a marked improvement. Again, that's a sort of non-obvious selection bias.
Add another curious component: in the January election at least some teams were ordered to abandon the observation because of rough cold conditions and snowfall at some point in the night ("drive before the driver gets too tired"), and return to their hotels. This time, with better weather, the observation probably was more sticky, and more teams stayed until the very end when some of the problems become really apparent. Again, this could have some impact when comparing the numbers.
Noting these counterintuitive impacts (some small, some big) on absolute numbers shouldn't serve to dismiss the observation effort, nor the attempt to quantify. Yes, no count should be bad, and training and everything else should remain as ambitious as possible. We're noting this primarily to contribute to a sophisticated use of the data, and again to underline the need for a revised observation methodology, which ideally emphasizes more sophisticated sampling.
The CRRC’s 500th post and thoughts about the future of social research
How to buy votes when you can’t buy votesToday, less than democratic regimes face a serious dilemma – how do you buy votes to win an election without becoming an international pariah. Unfortunately for a society and fortunately for an autocrat, the wheels of power and administrative resources an incumbent regime wields provide ample opportunity to manipulate electoral outcomes through what are otherwise legitimate activities related to state spending and coercion.
Before and After the Elections: Shifting Public Opinion in Georgia
Electoral Notes- Municipal Elections, 2014
Trust in local government in Georgia
Making Votes Count: Statistical Anomalies in Election StatisticsDirect observation of polling stations is the best method available to ensure the accuracy of the vote, however, election observers cannot be everywhere all the time. Given this fact, the field of election forensics, a subfield of political science, has developed a number of statistical tests to look for statistical anomalies in election returns, which may suggest suspicious election-related activity.
The Wave of the Future: Optimism, Pessimism and Fatalism in Georgia
Nine things politicians should know about Georgian voters
Making energy matters matter: entering the electoral field
2015 EU survey report: Major trends and recommendations
Democracy in Georgia
ODA Keyword Search
Third Stage of the Junior Research Fellowship Program at CRRC-Azerbaijan Launched!
Spreading the News: File Sharing through Mobile Phones in Armenia
The Caucasus Barometer 2010 Dataset Is Available!
ODA – CRRC Data Analysis Online
Rule of Law in Georgia - Opinions and Attitudes of the Population
Class in the Caucasus | Article by Ken Roberts and Gary Pollock
Fancy Living Abroad? 39% of Young Armenians Say "Preferably Forever"
Gender | How Does the South Caucasus Compare?
A Further Look at Material Deprivation
Can a Cut NATO Supply Route Through Russia Benefit Georgia and Azerbaijan?
Insight to Georgian Households | CRRC Data on Economic Wellbeing in the Caucasus
Obstacles for Civil Society Development in the South Caucasus
Top Ten Leisure Activities in Georgia
Social networks in rural and urban Georgia
New Policy Advice on Migration and Development in Georgia
The Level of Trust in Government Institutions in Georgia: The Dynamics of the Past Three Years
Caucasus Barometer | A New Name for the CRRC's Data Initiative
Election Day Portal
Testing Mobile Innovation in our Surveys
SMS Survey | First Insights
Election Maps | Who Did Your Neighbors Vote For?
Language Learning in Georgia
Greatest Threats Facing the World | Data from the 2009 CB & the Global Attitudes Survey
From environmental catastrophe to violence, our world currently faces serious challenges with long-term consequences. In this context, what do people in the Caucasus consider to be the most acute problems?
Attitudes toward the West | Caucasus Analytical Digest
Respondent Evaluation | A Great Tool for Looking into Survey Interviews
CRRC's Media-Monitoring Project: TV Coverage of the Election Campaigns
Is the Caucasus in Europe or Asia? | Tim Straight at TEDxYerevan
Analysis of Preliminary Election ResultsIn order to help monitor the fidelity of the October 2016 parliamentary election results, CRRC-Georgia has carried out quantitative analysis of election-related statistics within the auspices of the Detecting Election Fraud through Data Analysis (DEFDA) project. Within the project we used methods from the field of election forensics. Election forensics is a field in political science that attempts to identify Election Day issues through looking at statistical patterns in election returns. This blog post reports the results of our analysis.
Alpha Version of CRRC Data Initiative now online!!!
USAID Political Party Assessment of Europe and Eurasia
Brookings Index of Regime Weakness | State Rebuilding or State Collapse in the Caucasus | The Annals of Data
Exit Polls | Take Two
Parliamentary Elections in Georgia | ODIHR Observation
What do Georgian Troops Think about the Iraq War?
Georgia post-Election Phone Survey | Quick Review
Religious practices across the South Caucasus | the Data Initiative
Religious practices across the South Caucasus | Take two
European Cup Craze : Who Supports Whom in the Caucasus?
CRRC Publication Research Fellowship 2008 Available
Caucasus Data | Language: Russian versus English?
PFA Report on “Armenia’s 2008 Presidential Election”
Caucasus Data: Tolerance towards Others
Georgia: Women's Participation in Politics
Polling Data on Turkish-Armenian Bilateral Relations
Focus on non-oil tax policy as oil revenues predicted to decline
South Caucasus Data 2007 on Unemployment
Policy Think Tanks | A Skeptical Assessment
Comparing Civic Participation: Caucasus Data 2007
PISA Test | how are Azerbaijani schools doing?OECD has just published their 2006 PISA results, which stands for "Program for International Student Assessment". In PISA, 15-year olds are tested for basic abilities in various fields. The 2006 round focused primarily on science learning. A little more than 60 countries participated, including Azerbaijan. Georgia and Armenia did not take part.
McCain vs Obama: Caucasus preferences
EBRD Life in Transition Survey | worth analyzing!
Freedom House Report | Democracy in the Caucasus
Caucasus Election Programs in the 1990s
History vs Public Policy
Snapshots on Attitudes towards Education
Exit Polls | a good idea?With upcoming elections in Georgia, the attention is back on a theme that otherwise often gets neglected: what does the Georgian electorate want?
International Survey of Think Tanks | Zilch in the CaucasusThe Foreign Policy Research Institute does an international survey of think tanks. Apparently they mailed 3,025 surveys to 126 countries. Of these, 817 responded in 96 countries.
Number of logical inconsistencies in 2016 election protocols declineFollowing the 2016 parliamentary elections, a number of politicians questioned the results based on logical inconsistencies on election protocols. Some of the election protocols, which summarize election results for individual voting stations, reported that more voters had come to the polls than actually cast ballots while others reported that more votes had been cast than voters came to the polling station. While both did happen, the Central Election Commission has made dramatic improvements compared to Georgia’s 2012 parliamentary elections.
Electoral forensics on the 2016 parliamentary electionsIn order to help monitor the fidelity of the October 2016 parliamentary election results, CRRC-Georgia has carried out quantitative analysis of election-related statistics within the auspices of the Detecting Election Fraud through Data Analysis (DEFDA) project.
Three months before the 2016 Parliamentary elections: Trust in the Central Election Commission and election observers in GeorgiaThe June 2016 CRRC/NDI Public attitudes in Georgia survey, conducted three months before the Parliamentary elections, provides interesting information about trust in the Central Election Commission (CEC) and election observers, both local and international.
Taking partly free voters seriously: autocratic response to voter preferences in Armenia and GeorgiaDo voters in less than democratic contexts matter or are elections simply facades used to create a veneer of democratic accountability for domestic and international actors? Within the Autocratic Response to Voter Preferences in Armenia and Georgia project, funded by Academic Swiss Caucasus Net, CRRC-Georgia and CRRC-Armenia aimed to help answer this question, at least for Georgia and Armenia. On October 27, Caucasus Survey published the results of the project in a special issue, available here.
Gender (in)equality on TVStereotypes are an inseparable part of every society, and present in many parts of everyday life. Georgian society is no exception in this regard. For example, some professions like teaching are stereotypically thought of as “women’s professions” while others like being a soldier are considered “men’s professions”. The media is considered one of the strongest means through which stereotypes are strengthened or broken. In Georgia, TV is the most important media, given that according to CRRC/NDI data, 73% of the population of the country name television as their primary source of the information. In order to understand the dynamics around gender-based stereotypes on TV, CRRC-Georgia monitored the main evening news releases and political talk shows broadcast during prime time (from 18:00 to 00:00) on five national and three regional channels from September 11 to November 12, 2017 (Channel One of the Public Broadcaster, Adjara, Rustavi 2, Imedi, Maestro, Trialeti, Gurjaani, Odishi) with the support of the UN Joint Program for Gender Equality with support from UNDP Georgia and the Swedish government.
Pension reform is underway in Georgia, but only about half of the population is aware of itOn July 21, 2018 Georgian legislators approved an accumulative pension scheme, after years of discussion. As one of the requirements of the new law, employees with contracts who are under the age of 40 have to contribute 2% of their remuneration to the state-run pension fund, on a monthly basis. Although other employees are not legally required to do so, they may participate in the scheme voluntarily. This law is a first step in a larger reform of Georgia’s pension system. Opposition politicians have criticized the new law citing that it counters the country’s constitution as it introduces a new tax without a referendum. Several civil society groups also expressed criticism of the reform, questioning its legitimacy.
საარჩევნო გარემო ეთნიკური უმცირესობებით კომპაქტურად დასახლებულ არეალებში უარესდება„CRRC საქართველოს“ გამოკითხვის შედეგების მიხედვით, საარჩევნო გარემო ყველაზე მეტად პრობლემატური უმცირესობებით კომპაქტურად დასახლებულ რეგიონებშია და მდგომარეობა უფრო უარესდება.
2018 წლის საპრეზიდენტო არჩევნები, განსაკუთრებით კი — მეორე ტურში დატრიალებული მოვლენები შესაძლოა, ქვეყნის დემოკრატიული განვითარების გზაზე უკან გადადგმულ ნაბიჯად ჩაითვალოს. პირველ და მეორე ტურებს შორის მთავრობამ განაცხადა, რომ არჩევნების შემდეგ დაახლოებით 600 ათასამდე მოქალაქეს ვალებს ჩამოაწერდა, რაც, ზოგიერთი დამკვირვებლის აზრით, ამომრჩეველთა მოსყიდვად უნდა ჩათვლილიყო...
Pessimism about Georgia’s direction hides room for optimismWhile a large number of Georgians think the country is going in the wrong direction, the fact that they are judging the country’s performance based on issues rather than political partisanship alone is a good sign.
Georgia’s Foreign Policy Trilemma: Balance, Bandwagon, or Hedge? Part 1Georgia is a small, partly free democracy in a tough neighbourhood, and NATO membership remains an unfulfilled promise. While Russia is widely perceived as the main threat to Georgia’s security, the appropriate strategic or political response to the threat is not obvious. What options does Georgia have when faced with a powerful rival on its border, and what public support is there for these options?
Georgia’s Foreign Policy Trilemma: Balance, Bandwagon, or Hedge? Part 2The first part of this blog post discussed evidence of an association between perceiving Russia as the main threat to Georgia and a preference for a foreign policy that balances against that threat through alliances with the West. The relationship between threat perception and hedging, defined as attempting to maintain good relations with both Russia and the West, is less clear.
What kind of electoral system do Georgians actually want?On 8 March, Georgia’s political leaders agreed on a new electoral system under which 120 seats will be allocated via proportional elections and 30 seats will be allocated via direct election of candidates.
The long-fought-over electoral reform was a compromise which represents two steps forward after three steps had been taken back.
Covid-19 Monitor: New Report on Georgian Public Opinion on the Covid-19 Crisis
The rallying around the flag effect in Georgia
In times of crisis, support for governments often rises in what is known as a rallying around the flag effect. The COVID-19 crisis in Georgia has been no exception.
Data from around the world has shown rallying around the flag effects in many countries during the pandemic, with a few exceptions. Georgia has followed this broader pattern, with performance ratings tripling for many actors and institutions between November/December 2019 and May 2020.
Georgian voters: personalities, policies, or a bit of both?
While personality in politics matters greatly for the Georgian public, data from this year shows that for Georgian Dream and United National Movement voters, policy is still important.
A recent CRRC Georgia policy brief argued that what was really dividing Georgians politically was personalities rather than policies. Data from the August 2020 CRRC and NDI survey provides further evidence for this idea.
However, the data also shows a difference between Georgian Dream (GD) and United National Movement (UNM) voters in terms of policy preferences and that economic policy is the most important issue for a plurality of voters.
Political campaigning in Georgia: informing or mobilising?
Political campaigning takes a wide range of forms, from digital advertising to door knocking. Generally, campaigning is believed to both mobilise voters to actually go out to vote as well as win over voters, but which is most relevant in Georgia?
Data from the August CRRC Georgia and NDI public opinion poll indicate that people who wanted to be contacted by campaigners also appeared more partisan than others. This may suggest that campaigning in Georgia will be more effective at turning out partisans than persuading the undecided.