Pre-Election Polls | what would be needed
With the election in Georgia approaching fast, polls are beginning to appear every week. Unfortunately, many of these polls are taken at face value. The reality is that at this point there is not a single pre-election poll that has demonstrated credibility. This does not necessarily mean that polling firms and newspapers are simply fabricating their data -- it simply means that if they were simply fabricating their data, it would be very difficult for anyone to know.
So can we be confident that a poll is credible? There are a number of basic stipulations:
1. Reveal the sampling methodology. How, in other words, do the pollsters ensure that interviewing a few thousand people is representative of the entire electorate? Choosing respondents requires a) knowing where most people live, and b) having a very strong theory about which people are likely to turn out to vote on election day. This is very difficult stuff, and even tiny errors here can have tremendous consequences.
2. Tell us about the field work. Were the interviews done face to face or by telephone? When and how? Did the survey enumerators explain who they were working for, and is it possible that the respondents knew that they were looking certain answers?
3. Publish the questionnaire. What exactly was asked, and how, and in what sequence?
4. Document the non-response rate. How many people refused to answer? There are plenty of people who don't pick up the phone, or who don't have 30 minutes to talk to pollsters...and in this country, many of those people will vote.
5. Allow peer-review. Power point presentations for nonspecialists are fine, but make the data set available to peers for professional scrutiny (and of course you can restrict usage). If you really are confident in what you're doing, this is the way to go.
If polls do not meet the standards, they really do not deserve to be taken seriously.
Too many commentators forget that the burden of proof is on the polling firms, not on the public. We seem to be entering a dangerous cycle, where there is a lot of awful information floating around, and no one has the ability to sort the good from the bad. This is as much a problem with what the public is demanding as what the firms are supplying. The public should beware, and commentators should be very cautious about taking firms' power point slides at face value, until some basic methodological questions are answered transparently.
What do CB interviewers’ ratings of respondents’ intelligence tell us?
Junior Fellows at CRRC-Georgia: Facing new challenges
Getting to the streets: Who is more inclined to protest in Georgia?
საქართველოში დემოკრატიის მხარდაჭერა მცირდება
Fearing for the children – how living with children affects homophobic attitudes in Tbilisi
Fearing for the children - the blog looks at how homophobic attitudes vary along gender lines taking into account whether men and women live in a household with children:Can’t get no satisfaction. Who doesn’t want to join the EU?
How to buy votes when you can’t buy votes
Today, less than democratic regimes face a serious dilemma – how do you buy votes to win an election without becoming an international pariah. Unfortunately for a society and fortunately for an autocrat, the wheels of power and administrative resources an incumbent regime wields provide ample opportunity to manipulate electoral outcomes through what are otherwise legitimate activities related to state spending and coercion.Before and After the Elections: Shifting Public Opinion in Georgia
Alternating Pasts, Changing Futures
Note: This blog is re-posted from the MYPLACE project's blog. The original MYPLACE blog can be found here.Electoral Notes- Municipal Elections, 2014
Trust in local government in Georgia
A look at (in)Justice in Georgia as charges are brought against ex-President Saakashvili
Russia as a threat: the Ukraine crisis and changing public opinion in Georgia
Making energy matters matter: entering the electoral field
Democracy in Georgia
Leaving Thoughts by British Political Officer in Georgia
Access to justice in Central Asia | Presentation of research findings in Kazakhstan
IDPs in Georgia – Attitudes towards return, conflict resolution and justice
The Caucasus Barometer 2010 Dataset Is Available!
Public Attitudes in Georgia: CRRC Polling Results
ODA – CRRC Data Analysis Online
Follow-Up Media Landscape Survey
By Tamar ZurabishviliIf You Were Asked What Everyone Else Thought of Your Country...
Caucasus Barometer: Unpacking Public Trust in the President
MyPlace Website is up!
Counting Crowds & Crowds Counting | Jacobs' Method
During the last 25 years Georgian capital has experienced a diverse history of political meetings in its central areas including peaceful demonstrations, rallies with radical political demands, “tent towns” and so forth. The higher the attendance, the more legitimate the protests are often seen to be. As a result, the figures themselves usually are contested, sometimes in significant controversy.Top Ten Leisure Activities in Georgia
Caucasus Barometer | A New Name for the CRRC's Data Initiative
Testing Mobile Innovation in our Surveys
SMS Survey | First Insights
Greatest Threats Facing the World | Data from the 2009 CB & the Global Attitudes Survey
From environmental catastrophe to violence, our world currently faces serious challenges with long-term consequences. In this context, what do people in the Caucasus consider to be the most acute problems?
Survey Snippet | WorldCup
The Public's View of Constitutional Reform in Georgia
Georgian get-togethers: Private Problems versus Politics
In September 2011, CRRC on behalf of Eurasia Partnership Foundation and EWMI G-PAC conducted a nationally representative survey on Volunteerism and Civic Participation in Georgia. Georgians were asked how often they get together and discuss private problems and politics with their friends and relatives (who do not live in their houses).Ask CRRC!
Ask CRRC: what does the public actually know?
DRC & CRRC's Migration Report
Ask CRRC | Survey vs Census
Q: What’s the difference between a survey and a census?Alpha Version of CRRC Data Initiative now online!!!
USAID Political Party Assessment of Europe and Eurasia
Philanthropy in Georgia
Counting People Makes them Count | Richard Rose
Exit Polls | Take Two
Diversity Polling on the Caucasus | Ask500
Parliamentary Elections in Georgia | ODIHR Observation
What do Georgian Troops Think about the Iraq War?
Georgia post-Election Phone Survey | Quick Review
European Cup Craze : Who Supports Whom in the Caucasus?
Caucasus Data | Language: Russian versus English?
Georgia: Women's Participation in Politics
Georgia Post-Conflict Phone Survey | may be a first glance?
Surveying Corruption | Details Matter!
What do Russians think about the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia? -- Data Snapshot
Russian Public Opinion | Levada Update
The August Conflict | Economic Impact on Georgia?
Polling Data on Turkish-Armenian Bilateral Relations
რატომ არ მართლდება წინასაარჩევნო გამოკითხვების შედეგები?
საქართველოში ექვსი ოქტომბრის დილის რვა საათიდან საარჩევნო უბნების დახურვამდე დუმილის პერიოდია. დროის ამ შუალედში, კანონმდებლობის თანახმად, საზოგადოებრივი აზრის გამოკითხვის შედეგების გამოქვეყნება იკრძალება[1]. ზუსტად ერთი დღით ადრე, ტელეკომპანია „იმედმა“ საკუთარი დაკვეთით ჩატარებული მასობრივი გამოკითხვის ანგარიში გამოაქვეყნა[2], რომელიც მრავალმა პოლიტიკოსმა, ექსპერტმა თუ ჟურნალისტმა არჩევნების შედეგების წინასწარმეტყველებად მიიღო. ამ წერილში აღვწერ, თუ რატომ არ ემთხვევა (და არ უნდა ემთხვეოდეს) გამოკითხვის შედეგები არჩევნებისას და მიმოვიხილავ მეთოდებს, რომლებიც ხმის მიცემის შედეგების პროგნოზისთვის გამოიყენება.Comparing Civic Participation: Caucasus Data 2007
McCain vs Obama: Caucasus preferences
World Press Freedom | Caucasus does badly!
Public Opinion on the Parliament in Georgia
World Public Opinion: Azerbaijan in Focus
EBRD Life in Transition Survey | worth analyzing!
Drugs Use Survey of Georgian Students, 2003
The Georgian Research Institute on Addictions (GRIA) in 2003 conducted a survey of about 700 students in Tbilisi's universities.Exit Polls | a good idea?
With upcoming elections in Georgia, the attention is back on a theme that otherwise often gets neglected: what does the Georgian electorate want?Georgia's Performance? | Millenium Challenge Corporation's Meta-Index
With all the attention on Georgia, it may be interesting to revisit Georgia's most recent performance as seen by international organizations. As it happens, the Millennium Challenge Corporation offers a such an assessment through its annual scorecard, just released last week. This scorecard is a meta-index, drawing on data from the World Bank Institute, Freedom House, IFC, WHO, UNESCO and a few other organizations.Schoolchildrens' Attitudes in Armenia: What Kind of Impact Has Civic Education Had?
Georgian parliamentary elections 2016 - Gender and ethnic minority representation on party lists
The results of the 2016 Parliamentary elections in Georgia reveal some interesting patterns about the representation of women and ethnic minorities in Georgian politics.Developing the “culture of polling” in Georgia (Part 1): Survey criticism in Georgia
Intense public debate usually accompanies the publication of survey findings in Georgia, especially when the findings are about politics. The discussions are often extremely critical or even call for the rejection of the results. Normally criticism of surveys would focus on the shortcomings of the research process and help guide researchers towards better practices to make surveys a better tool to understand society. In Georgia most of the current criticism of surveys is, unfortunately, counterproductive and mainly driven by an unwillingness to accept the findings, because the critics do not like them.Who makes political decisions in Georgia: What people think
Bidzina Ivanishvili resigned from the post of prime minister of Georgia on November 20th 2013, and in his own words, “left politics“. Speculation about his continued informal participation in the political decision-making process began even before he resigned and still continues. Some politicians think that Ivanishvili gives orders to the Georgian Dream party from behind-the-scenes, while others believe that he actually distanced himself from politics. Politicians, journalists and experts continue to discuss the situation. Meanwhile, a majority of Georgia’s population thinks that Bidzina Ivanishvili is still involved in the governing process and that his informal participation is unacceptable.Prioritizing the personal: People talk more about personal issues than political events
In general people are primarily interested in their own lives, rather than in social or political events. In other words, social and political events will, most probably, be overshadowed by events in one’s personal life. CRRC’s 2015 Caucasus Barometer (CB) survey data provides more detailed insights on this. In this blog post, we compare answers to two CB questions: “When you get together with your close relatives and friends, how often do you discuss each other’s private problems?” and “When you get together with your friends and close relatives, how often do you discuss politics / current affairs?” in Armenia and Georgia.Visa liberalization: How much do people in Georgia know about the conditions of visa-free travel to the EU?
CRRC’s previous blog posts have shown that the population of Georgia had rather moderate expectations of the recent visa liberalization with the Schengen zone countries, especially when it comes to the question of how much ordinary people will benefit from it. Europe Foundation’s latest survey on Knowledge of and Attitudes towards the European Union in Georgia, conducted in May 2017, provides a more nuanced understanding on how people in Georgia feel about this process and to what extent they are familiar with the conditions of visa liberalization.
Visa liberalization: How much do people in Georgia know about the conditions of visa-free travel to the EU?
CRRC’s previous blog posts have shown that the population of Georgia had rather moderate expectations of the recent visa liberalization with the Schengen zone countries, especially when it comes to the question of how much ordinary people will benefit from it. Europe Foundation’s latest survey on Knowledge of and Attitudes towards the European Union in Georgia, conducted in May 2017, provides a more nuanced understanding on how people in Georgia feel about this process and to what extent they are familiar with the conditions of visa liberalization.Survey incentives: When offering nothing is better than offering something
Why do people take the time to respond to surveys in Georgia? A telephone survey experiment CRRC-Georgia carried out in May 2017 suggests that small financial incentives may actually discourage people from participating in surveys. This finding suggests people may respond to surveys for intrinsic (e.g. because they are curious or want to help) rather than extrinsic reasons (e.g. doing something for the money).Taking partly free voters seriously: autocratic response to voter preferences in Armenia and Georgia
Do voters in less than democratic contexts matter or are elections simply facades used to create a veneer of democratic accountability for domestic and international actors? Within the Autocratic Response to Voter Preferences in Armenia and Georgia project, funded by Academic Swiss Caucasus Net, CRRC-Georgia and CRRC-Armenia aimed to help answer this question, at least for Georgia and Armenia. On October 27, Caucasus Survey published the results of the project in a special issue, available here.Who should own land in Georgia? How attitudes changed between 2015 and 2017
Georgian parliament recently adopted constitutional amendments. Among the many changes were those regulating the sale of agricultural land. According to the amendments, “Agricultural land, as a resource of special importance, can only be owned by the state, a self-governing entity, a citizen of Georgia, or a union of Georgian citizens.” While the constitution allows for exceptions, which should be regulated by a law yet to be written, it is expected that foreigners will not be allowed to buy agricultural land in Georgia as freely as Georgian citizens. This blog post looks at public opinion about foreigners owning land in Georgia.Perceptions of professionalism, corruption, and nepotism in local government
Professionalism, honesty, and fair competition are important in any institution. Yet, incidents involving corruption, nepotism and/or a lack of professionalism are sometimes reported in the Georgian media when the work of local government bodies is covered. How does the public perceive local government? This blog post describes data from the June 2017 CRRC/NDI survey, which show that a majority of people in Georgia thought that there were problems with nepotism and a lack of professionalism in local government. Moreover, roughly half of the population thought that their local government also faces a problem with corruption.Gender (in)equality on TV
Stereotypes are an inseparable part of every society, and present in many parts of everyday life. Georgian society is no exception in this regard. For example, some professions like teaching are stereotypically thought of as “women’s professions” while others like being a soldier are considered “men’s professions”. The media is considered one of the strongest means through which stereotypes are strengthened or broken. In Georgia, TV is the most important media, given that according to CRRC/NDI data, 73% of the population of the country name television as their primary source of the information. In order to understand the dynamics around gender-based stereotypes on TV, CRRC-Georgia monitored the main evening news releases and political talk shows broadcast during prime time (from 18:00 to 00:00) on five national and three regional channels from September 11 to November 12, 2017 (Channel One of the Public Broadcaster, Adjara, Rustavi 2, Imedi, Maestro, Trialeti, Gurjaani, Odishi) with the support of the UN Joint Program for Gender Equality with support from UNDP Georgia and the Swedish government.As many Georgians think the West spreads propaganda as Russia
On 13 February, the United States released its Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community. In it, the significance of Russian influence operations in Georgia were highlighted. Just eight days earlier, on 5 February, a coalition of Georgia’s leading non-governmental organisations made an official offer to support the Government of Georgia, the EU, and NATO in their efforts to counter anti-Western propaganda.Which questions do people tend to respond “Don’t know” to?
On surveys, sometimes the questions asked are hard for some people to answer. As a result, the answer option “Don’t know” is a regular part of any survey dataset. But are some questions particularly likely to elicit these responses? This blog post uses un-weighted 2017 CRRC Caucasus Barometer (CB) survey data for Georgia to look at this question.Are there predictors of not knowing and refusing to answer on surveys in Georgia?
Are there variables that predict who is likely to report “Don’t know” or to refuse to answer survey questions more often in Georgia? This blog post looks at this question, using un-weighted Caucasus Barometer 2017 (CB) data for Georgia.Who doesn’t want democracy for Georgia?
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia adopted western-style democratic institutions. They have never functioned in a fully democratic manner, fluctuating between more liberal and authoritarian tendencies. That is, Georgia is and has been a hybrid regime.But what do people want?
ესმით თუ არა ქართველებს, რას ნიშნავს გენდერული თანასწორობა?
გენდერული თანასწორობისა და ფემინიზმის ცნებები სულ უფრო ხშირად გამოიყენება საჯარო დისკურსში საქართველოში. 2010 წელს საქართველომ მიიღო კანონი გენდერული თანასწორობის შესახებ. გენდერული თანასწორობა ხშირად პოპულარული სატელევიზიო გადაცემების განხილვის საგანია და სახალხო დამცველის აპარატი ანგარიშს ამზადებს ამ საკითხთან დაკავშირებით. მიუხედავად ამისა, გამოკითხვის მონაცემები აჩვენებს, რომ ქართველებს ხშირად არ ესმით, რას ნიშნავს გენდერული თანასწორობა.რა მიმართულებით მიდის საქართველო? საქართველოს მოსახლეობის აღქმა
ბოლო ათი წელია, CRRC-საქართველოსა და ეროვნულ-დემოკრატიული ინსტიტუტის მიერ ჩატარებული კვლევები პოლიტიკური შეხედულებების შესახებ თვალს ადევნებს მოსახლეობის დამოკიდებულებას ქვეყნის მიმართულებაზე. მიუხედავად იმისა, რომ ამისი პირდაპირი მიზეზი ვერ იქნებოდა, მზარდი აღქმა იმისა, რომ საქართველო არასწორი მიმართულებით მიდის, გარკვეულწილად გავლენას ახდენს იმ საპროტესტო ტალღაზე, რაც საქართველოში ივნისში დაიწყო და დღემდე გრძელდება. ხალხის აღქმაზე, თუ რა მიმართულებით მიდის საქართველო, გავლენას მრავალი ფაქტორი ახდენს, თუმცა, ამ მიმართულებით ყველაზე მნიშვნელოვან ფაქტორებად არჩევნები და აშშ დოლართან მიმართებაში ქართული ლარის დევალვაცია იკვეთება. ეს ბლოგი მიმოიხილავს, თუ როგორ იცვლება მოსახლეობის შეხედულება ქვეყნის მიმართულებაზე ბოლო ათი წლის განმავლობაში.Attitudes toward politicians are related to evaluations of institutional performance
How citizens evaluate the performance of the state is often a reasonable proxy for its performance. In Georgia, evaluations of public institutions are mixed. While a number of social and demographic variables are associated with people’s perceptions of state performance, so too are people’s attitudes towards political parties and politicians. This shows once again how politics is personalized in Georgia.What divides and what unites Georgian society?
The last year has seen a number of conversations about polarization in Georgia. The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, even commented on the issue in his Batumi speech. One of the components of polarization, though not the sole factor, is division in society over actors, issues, and institutions.While many things could divide the public, what do the people think and which groups report more and fewer sources of division? The April 2019 NDI-CRRC poll suggests that there are fewer perceived reasons for division in rural areas and among ethnic minorities.
წამლები დესერტად? ოჯახის ყველაზე დიდი ყოველთვიური ხარჯები საქართველოში
საქართველოს მოსახლეობისთვის მთავარ სატკივრად კვლავ ეკონომიკა რჩება. სამომხმარებლო ფასის ინდექსის და დოლარის ლართან გაცვლის კურსის ზრდასთან ერთად, ბოლო წლების განმავლობაში შინამეურნეობების საშუალო ხარჯებიც გაიზარდა. ამასთანავე, უახლესი მონაცემების მიხედვით, მოსახლეობის მხოლოდ 10%-ს აქვს რაიმე დანაზოგი. შინამეურნეობის საშუალო ხარჯების გაზრდასთან ერთად, საინტერესოა, რაში ხარჯავს ხალხი ფულს საქართველოში. CRRC-NDI-ის ბოლო, 2019 წლის ზაფხულის კვლევაში დაისვა კითხვები ოჯახის ხარჯებთან დაკავშირებით, რაც გარკვეულ წარმოდგენას გვიქმნის იმის შესახებ, თუ რაში ხარჯავენ ფულს საქართველოში და ვინ უფრო მეტს ხარჯავს გარკვეული სახის პროდუქტებსა და მომსახურებაში.Government employees assess the work of the government better than the general public
The outlook in Georgia continues to be increasingly pessimistic, with more people reporting that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Similarly, performance assessments of government institutions have been on the decline in recent years. As recent CRRC analyses have highlighted, party identification, attitudes towards individual politicians, ethnicity, and Georgian language proficiency among ethnic minorities are associated with attitudes towards government. Analysis of the July 2019 CRRC and NDI survey suggests that working for the state is also associated with performance assessments. However, government employees in poor households and those in Tbilisi rate government performance significantly worse.საქართველოში კლებულობს ოპტიმიზმი ევროკავშირში გაწევრიანებასთან დაკავშირებით
საქართველო ევროკავშირში გაწევრიანების კანდიდატი ქვეყანა ჯერ არ არის, თუმცა, ევროკავშირში გაწევრიანება მთავრობის გაცხადებულ მიზანს წარმოადგენს. 2019 წლის გაზაფხულზე, CRRC-საქართველოს მიერ ჩატარებული კვლევის მიხედვით (ევროკავშირის მიმართ დამოკიდებულება და ცოდნის შეფასება), ხვალ რომ რეფერენდუმი ტარდებოდეს, საქართველოს მოსახლეობის 71% მხარს დაუჭერდა საქართველოს ევროკავშირში გაწევრიანებას. მხოლოდ 10% იქნებოდა ამის წინააღმდეგი და 7% საერთოდ არ მიიღებდა მონაწილეობას რეფერენდუმში. მიუხედავად იმისა, რომ ქვეყანაში ევროკავშირში გაწევრიანების მხარდაჭერა აშკარად მაღალია, ხალხი პესიმისტურად არის განწყობილი იმის მიმართ, თუ რა დრო დასჭირდება საქართველოს ევროკავშირში გასაწევრიანებლად.Georgia’s Foreign Policy Trilemma: Balance, Bandwagon, or Hedge? Part 1
Georgia is a small, partly free democracy in a tough neighbourhood, and NATO membership remains an unfulfilled promise. While Russia is widely perceived as the main threat to Georgia’s security, the appropriate strategic or political response to the threat is not obvious. What options does Georgia have when faced with a powerful rival on its border, and what public support is there for these options?Georgia’s Foreign Policy Trilemma: Balance, Bandwagon, or Hedge? Part 2
The first part of this blog post discussed evidence of an association between perceiving Russia as the main threat to Georgia and a preference for a foreign policy that balances against that threat through alliances with the West. The relationship between threat perception and hedging, defined as attempting to maintain good relations with both Russia and the West, is less clear.In a sea of pessimism, who is optimistic about Georgia?
The CRRC and NDI survey released two weeks ago showed a pessimistic picture – half the public thinks Georgia is going in the wrong direction, 24% that nothing is changing, and only 19% think it is going in the right direction. A majority (59%) think the country is not a democracy for the first time since the question was asked on the survey in 2010. Moreover, performance assessments of government, parliament, the courts, and most ministries declined.What kind of electoral system do Georgians actually want?
On 8 March, Georgia’s political leaders agreed on a new electoral system under which 120 seats will be allocated via proportional elections and 30 seats will be allocated via direct election of candidates.The long-fought-over electoral reform was a compromise which represents two steps forward after three steps had been taken back.
As COVID-19 sends political campaigning to Facebook, will polarisation increase?
With Georgia in an election year and traditional face-to-face campaigning out of the question given the COVID-19 outbreak, the importance of Facebook in Georgian politics is only likely to grow.Facebook is an important part of Georgian politics. Political campaigns are fought, and public opinion thought to often be formed on the platform...
Georgian voters: personalities, policies, or a bit of both?
While personality in politics matters greatly for the Georgian public, data from this year shows that for Georgian Dream and United National Movement voters, policy is still important.
A recent CRRC Georgia policy brief argued that what was really dividing Georgians politically was personalities rather than policies. Data from the August 2020 CRRC and NDI survey provides further evidence for this idea.
However, the data also shows a difference between Georgian Dream (GD) and United National Movement (UNM) voters in terms of policy preferences and that economic policy is the most important issue for a plurality of voters.
UNM supporters are especially pessimistic about their economic future
With the pandemic still raging and accompanying economic restrictions still in force, Georgians are unsurprisingly pessimistic about their economic future. This holds true especially for supporters of the opposition United National Movement Party, above all other party supporters.
COVID-19 restrictions have impacted people’s economic activity heavily. This is reflected in key economic indicators such as GDP, which declined by 5.9% year on year between January and November 2020.
It is also reflected in employment, with fewer people reporting starting new jobs and more people reporting having lost one, according to the 2020 Caucasus Barometer.
Грузини хочуть, щоби їхній уряд підтримав Україну
Війна Росії з Україною шокувала світ. Вона також шокувала Грузію, а нове опитування від CRRC Georgia викриває ступінь наявних політичних наслідків.
Наслідки війни, що стосуються зовнішньої та внутрішньої політики Грузії, виявилися доволі масштабними. Офіційна позиція Грузії щодо війни була суперечливою: в той час як прем’єр-міністр Іраклі Гарібашвілі категорично заявив, що Грузія не приєднається до санкцій, накладених Заходом проти Росії, президент Грузії Саломе Зурабішвілі почала медійний та дипломатичний бліц у Європі, висловлюючи рішучу підтримку Україні.
How do Georgians feel about the influx of Russians?
Recent CRRC data shows that a large majority of the Georgian public is concerned about the migration of Russians to Georgia.Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, at least 1.2 million Russian citizens have entered Georgia, equivalent to roughly 30% of Georgia’s population. While the number of Russian citizens who have decided to stay in Georgia remains unclear, the impact of this mass migration is strongly felt in rising rents and concerns over the country’s security.