Three months before the 2016 Parliamentary elections: Trust in the Central Election Commission and election observers in Georgia
The June 2016 CRRC/NDI Public attitudes in Georgia survey, conducted three months before the Parliamentary elections, provides interesting information about trust in the Central Election Commission (CEC) and election observers, both local and international.
The CEC’s role in conducting elections in Georgia has been subject to contentious political debates about the organization’s impartiality. The survey data demonstrates the public’s lack of trust in the institution. In June, only 29% of the population of Georgia believed that the CEC would conduct parliamentary elections “well” or “very well”. In contrast to this general opinion, a majority (60%) of likely voters for the incumbent Georgian Dream party believed the same, while less than a third of likely voters for the two other parties that won seats in parliament (the United National Movement and Alliance of Patriots of Georgia) believed that the CEC would conduct the elections “well” or “very well”.
Note: The shares of those reporting they would vote for either Movement State for People or Alliance of Patriots of Georgia was very small (respectively, 4% and 3%), and the results for the supporters of these two parties are only indicative.
Unsurprisingly, trust towards Georgian and international observers also differs. Overall, the population of Georgia tends to trust international observers more than Georgian observers. Forty eight percent report either “fully trusting” or “trusting” international observers, compared to 34% who report trust in Georgian observers. There are even wider gaps in trust in these two groups of observers depending on party support: while 63% of United National Movement supporters report either “fully trusting” or “trusting” international observers, only 29% “fully trust” or “trust” Georgian observers.
Note: The shares of those reporting they would vote for either Movement State for People or Alliance of Patriots of Georgia was very small (respectively, 4% and 3%), and the results for the supporters of these two parties are only indicative.
To explore the CRRC/NDI June 2016 survey findings, visit CRRC’s Online Data Analysis portal. On the topic of anomalies in the voting process, CRRC-Georgia recently conducted the Detecting Election Fraud through Data Analysis (DEFDA) project regarding the 2016 parliamentary elections. Preliminary findings can be found here. CRRC-Georgia has also previously published blog posts on the electoral process in Georgia, including on government spending before elections and public opinion shifts before and after elections.
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Trust in Institutions in the South Caucasus
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Expectations and the EU Association Agreement
Making Votes Count: Statistical Anomalies in Election Statistics
Direct observation of polling stations is the best method available to ensure the accuracy of the vote, however, election observers cannot be everywhere all the time. Given this fact, the field of election forensics, a subfield of political science, has developed a number of statistical tests to look for statistical anomalies in election returns, which may suggest suspicious election-related activity.Perceptions of Court System Fairness in the South Caucasus
Ann Bennett Lockwood, an American attorney, politician and author once said that, “If nations could only depend upon fair and impartial judgments in a world court of law, they would abandon the senseless, savage practice of war”. For many, the credibility of a government is judged by the fairness of itsjudicial system. For instance, Michel Rosenfeld (2001) argued that a fair justice system creates respect and faith in government by saying that, “If a citizen implicitly or explicitly endorses a law or legal regime, the latter can be considered subjectively fair.”მონაცემებში ასახული ტენდენციები: სოციალური და პოლიტიკური ინსტიტუტების მიმართ ნდობის ცვლილება სომხეთში
CRRC-ს მიერ ცოტა ხნის წინ გამოქვეყნებული ბლოგის მიხედვით, საქართველოში სხვადასხვა სოციალური და პოლიტიკური ინსტიტუტის მიმართ ნდობა 2011-დან 2015 წლამდე დაეცა. ეს ბლოგი, კავკასიის ბარომეტრის მონაცემებზე დაყრდნობით, მიმოიხილავს ნდობას იგივე ინსტიტუტების მიმართ სომხეთში.Making energy matters matter: entering the electoral field
2015 EU survey report: Major trends and recommendations
Democracy in Georgia
Caucasus Barometer: Unpacking Public Trust in the President
Rule of Law in Georgia - Opinions and Attitudes of the Population
The Level of Trust in Government Institutions in Georgia: The Dynamics of the Past Three Years
Levels of trust in the banks in Georgia: Changes over the past two years
Election Day Portal
Testing Mobile Innovation in our Surveys
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Election Maps | Who Did Your Neighbors Vote For?
CRRC's Media-Monitoring Project: TV Coverage of the Election Campaigns
Analysis of Preliminary Election Results
In order to help monitor the fidelity of the October 2016 parliamentary election results, CRRC-Georgia has carried out quantitative analysis of election-related statistics within the auspices of the Detecting Election Fraud through Data Analysis (DEFDA) project. Within the project we used methods from the field of election forensics. Election forensics is a field in political science that attempts to identify Election Day issues through looking at statistical patterns in election returns. This blog post reports the results of our analysis.USAID Political Party Assessment of Europe and Eurasia
Exit Polls | Take Two
Parliamentary Elections in Georgia | ODIHR Observation
Georgian Election | ODIHR Preliminary Report and its Percentages
Georgia post-Election Phone Survey | Quick Review
PFA Report on “Armenia’s 2008 Presidential Election”
McCain vs Obama: Caucasus preferences
Freedom House Report | Democracy in the Caucasus
Caucasus Election Programs in the 1990s
Exit Polls | a good idea?
With upcoming elections in Georgia, the attention is back on a theme that otherwise often gets neglected: what does the Georgian electorate want?Number of logical inconsistencies in 2016 election protocols decline
Following the 2016 parliamentary elections, a number of politicians questioned the results based on logical inconsistencies on election protocols. Some of the election protocols, which summarize election results for individual voting stations, reported that more voters had come to the polls than actually cast ballots while others reported that more votes had been cast than voters came to the polling station. While both did happen, the Central Election Commission has made dramatic improvements compared to Georgia’s 2012 parliamentary elections.Electoral forensics on the 2016 parliamentary elections
In order to help monitor the fidelity of the October 2016 parliamentary election results, CRRC-Georgia has carried out quantitative analysis of election-related statistics within the auspices of the Detecting Election Fraud through Data Analysis (DEFDA) project.Gender (in)equality on TV
Stereotypes are an inseparable part of every society, and present in many parts of everyday life. Georgian society is no exception in this regard. For example, some professions like teaching are stereotypically thought of as “women’s professions” while others like being a soldier are considered “men’s professions”. The media is considered one of the strongest means through which stereotypes are strengthened or broken. In Georgia, TV is the most important media, given that according to CRRC/NDI data, 73% of the population of the country name television as their primary source of the information. In order to understand the dynamics around gender-based stereotypes on TV, CRRC-Georgia monitored the main evening news releases and political talk shows broadcast during prime time (from 18:00 to 00:00) on five national and three regional channels from September 11 to November 12, 2017 (Channel One of the Public Broadcaster, Adjara, Rustavi 2, Imedi, Maestro, Trialeti, Gurjaani, Odishi) with the support of the UN Joint Program for Gender Equality with support from UNDP Georgia and the Swedish government.Changes in public opinion between 2011 and 2017
A lot changed in Georgia between 2011 and 2017, including the government. New promises and new regulations have been made and new priorities set by politicians. A visa free regime with the Schengen zone countries came into force. An ultranationalist ‘Georgian March’ was organized. A Georgian priest was charged with conspiracy to murder the Secretary of the Patriarch of the Georgian Orthodox Church, the most trusted institution in Georgia. This list is by no means exhaustive, but it does raise questions about whether and how public opinion has changed against the backdrop of these and other events.Is Georgia’s Orthodox Christian population losing (trust in) their religion?
Surveys conducted in Georgia have repeatedly shown that the Georgian Orthodox Church’s leader Patriarch Ilia II is the most trusted public figure in the country. Yet, CRRC’s Caucasus Barometer survey data from 2008 to 2017 suggests that both the share of Orthodox Christians in Georgia that trust the Church and the degree to which they trust the Church is on the decline. Although the survey does not provide direct evidence, the scandals surrounding the church in recent years could have contributed to this. For instance, in 2017, a priest was convicted of attempting to poison the Secretary of Ilia II. The government has sold land to the Church at symbolic prices on numerous occasions, often leading to negative media coverage. In 2013, priests were involved in an anti-LGBT rights riot.NGOs in Georgia: Low trust, high expectations? (Part 1)
Over the last decade, people in Georgia have reported rather low levels of trust toward NGOs. At the same time, when asked during surveys to assess specific aspects of NGO activities, the answers have usually been positive. This blog post is based on the findings of a survey on attitudes toward NGOs collected by CRRC-Georgia in fall, 2017 for the Georgian Civil Society Sustainability Initiative (CSSIGE). The first part of this blog post looks at the most up-to-date data on knowledge of NGOs in Georgia and reported levels of trust toward them. The second part explores the inconsistency between low trust toward NGOs in Georgia, on the one hand, and quite positive assessments of their activities, on the other hand.NGOs in Georgia: Low trust, high expectations? (Part 2)
As discussed in the first part of this blog post, the results of CRRC-Georgia’s survey conducted for the Georgian Civil Society Sustainability Initiative (CSSIGE) project in fall 2017 confirmed that both knowledge about NGOs and trust toward them is quite low in Georgia. This blog post looks at the inconsistency between low trust toward NGOs, on the one hand, and quite positive assessments of their activities, on the other hand.საარჩევნო გარემო ეთნიკური უმცირესობებით კომპაქტურად დასახლებულ არეალებში უარესდება
„CRRC საქართველოს“ გამოკითხვის შედეგების მიხედვით, საარჩევნო გარემო ყველაზე მეტად პრობლემატური უმცირესობებით კომპაქტურად დასახლებულ რეგიონებშია და მდგომარეობა უფრო უარესდება.2018 წლის საპრეზიდენტო არჩევნები, განსაკუთრებით კი — მეორე ტურში დატრიალებული მოვლენები შესაძლოა, ქვეყნის დემოკრატიული განვითარების გზაზე უკან გადადგმულ ნაბიჯად ჩაითვალოს. პირველ და მეორე ტურებს შორის მთავრობამ განაცხადა, რომ არჩევნების შემდეგ დაახლოებით 600 ათასამდე მოქალაქეს ვალებს ჩამოაწერდა, რაც, ზოგიერთი დამკვირვებლის აზრით, ამომრჩეველთა მოსყიდვად უნდა ჩათვლილიყო...
უზენაესი სასამართლოს მოსამართლეების შერჩევა: რა იცის და რა დამოკიდებულება აქვს ხალხს საქართველოში ამ პროცესის შესახებ
საკონსტიტუციო ცვლილებებისა და საქართველოს ორგანულ კანონში შესული ცვლილებების შედეგად, უზენაეს სასამართლოში მოსამართლეთა მინიმალური რაოდენობა 28-მდე გაიზარდა. გარდა ამისა, მოსამართლეობის 10-წლიანი ვადაუვადო დანიშვნის წესით შეიცვალა და პარლამენტის წინაშე მოსამართლეობის კანდიდატების ნომინირების უფლება იუსტიციის უმაღლეს საბჭოს გადაეცა. შესაბამისად, იუსტიციის უმაღლესმა საბჭომ უზენაესი სასამართლოს მოსამართლეობის კანდიდატების შერჩევის პროცესი დაიწყო და 2019 წლის სექტემბრის დასაწყისში გამოაქვეყნა იმ 20 კანდიდატის სია, რომელიც პარლამენტს წარუდგინეს დასამტკიცებლად. კანდიდატებთან გასაუბრება პირდაპირ ეთერში გადაიცემოდა. შერჩევის პროცესი ქართულმა მედიამ საკმაოდ ფართოდ გააშუქა.What kind of electoral system do Georgians actually want?
On 8 March, Georgia’s political leaders agreed on a new electoral system under which 120 seats will be allocated via proportional elections and 30 seats will be allocated via direct election of candidates.The long-fought-over electoral reform was a compromise which represents two steps forward after three steps had been taken back.
Trust in institutions continues its steady decline in Georgia
Trust in institutions has been on the decline in Georgia for a decade now. For instance, the level of trust in religious institutions declined from 86% of the public reporting trust in 2008 to 71% in 2019, with the decline being particularly prominent among Orthodox Christians, the main religious group in the country.ანალიზი | საეკლესიო სკანდალები ზიანს აყენებს საქართველოს მართლმადიდებელი ეკლესიის მიმართ ნდობას
ბოლო წლების განმავლობაში საქართველოს მართლმადიდებელი ეკლესია არაერთ სკანდალში გაეხვა. იქონია თუ არა ამ სკანდალებმა გავლენა მოსახლეობის ნდობაზე ეკლესიის მიმართ?
2017 წელს ერთერთ მღვდელს ბრალი წაუყენეს და გაასამართლეს საქართველოს კათალიკოს პატრიარქ ილია მეორის მდივნის მკვლელობის მცდელობისთვის. ასევე, იყო გახმაურებული შემთხვევები, რომლებიც სახელმწიფოს მიერ ეკლესიისთვის მიწების სიმბოლურ ფასად გადაცემას შეეხებოდა...
The rallying around the flag effect in Georgia
In times of crisis, support for governments often rises in what is known as a rallying around the flag effect. The COVID-19 crisis in Georgia has been no exception.
Data from around the world has shown rallying around the flag effects in many countries during the pandemic, with a few exceptions. Georgia has followed this broader pattern, with performance ratings tripling for many actors and institutions between November/December 2019 and May 2020.
Georgian voters: personalities, policies, or a bit of both?
While personality in politics matters greatly for the Georgian public, data from this year shows that for Georgian Dream and United National Movement voters, policy is still important.
A recent CRRC Georgia policy brief argued that what was really dividing Georgians politically was personalities rather than policies. Data from the August 2020 CRRC and NDI survey provides further evidence for this idea.
However, the data also shows a difference between Georgian Dream (GD) and United National Movement (UNM) voters in terms of policy preferences and that economic policy is the most important issue for a plurality of voters.
Political campaigning in Georgia: informing or mobilising?
Political campaigning takes a wide range of forms, from digital advertising to door knocking. Generally, campaigning is believed to both mobilise voters to actually go out to vote as well as win over voters, but which is most relevant in Georgia?
Data from the August CRRC Georgia and NDI public opinion poll indicate that people who wanted to be contacted by campaigners also appeared more partisan than others. This may suggest that campaigning in Georgia will be more effective at turning out partisans than persuading the undecided.
Is People’s Power designed to make Georgian Dream look good?
A CRRC Georgia study found that positioning Georgian Dream as more moderate than its spin-off group, People’s Power, increased support for the ruling party.Democratic hypocrisy in Tbilisi
A CRRC Georgia survey found that people living in Tbilisi were more willing to accept democracy-eroding policies if they believed that their preferred party was in power.Georgia’s changing priorities at the UN General Assembly
A quantitative analysis of the speeches made by Georgia’s leaders at the annual UN General Assembly found that their themes and priorities changed after the change of government in 2012, with Georgian Dream leaders more positive and discussing Russia less negatively than their predecessors.Can political parties in Georgia survive abandonment by their leaders?
A year before Georgia’s general elections, a CRRC survey found that less than half of surveyed Georgian partisans would remain loyal to their favoured party if its leader were to establish a new party, with supporters of the ruling party more likely to stick with their party than supporters of the opposition.